JPMorgan Projects U.S. Recession in Late 2025, Citing Impact of Trump’s Tariffs

JPMorgan forecasts a U.S. recession in the second half of 2025 due to the impact of President Trump’s tariffs.

Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli predicts a two-quarter recession, with GDP contracting by 1% in Q3 and 0.5% in Q4, resulting in an overall decline of 0.3% for the year.

Feroli also expects the unemployment rate to rise to 5.3%, up from 4.2% in March.

While other economists have noted increasing recession risks, JPMorgan is the first major Wall Street firm to formally predict a recession linked to these tariffs.

JPMorgan becomes the first Wall Street bank to forecast a US recession following Trump’s tariffs