Historian Who Accurately Predicted 9/10 Presidential Elections Reveals 2024 Prediction
Written by Site Hub on September 7, 2024
Allan Lichtman, a historian known for accurately predicting U.S. presidential elections since 1984, has forecasted that Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump in the 2024 election. Lichtman’s prediction is based on his “Keys to the White House” model, which uses 13 true-false criteria to determine the likelihood of an incumbent party’s victory. If six or more of the keys turn false, the incumbent party loses. In this case, only five keys are false, indicating a win for Harris.
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE
3. Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE
4. Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. TRUE
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE
10. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
11. Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE
12. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
13. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
The last two are tricky and could flip before November, but even if they do, Trump would not have enough to win.
“The keys absolutely will work. They are the constant northern star of political prediction,” Lichtman said.
“The outcome is up to you,” he added. “So get out and vote.”
Source: CNBC
